Will they, or will not they?

Forward of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue safety summit in Singapore, a lot hypothesis centered on a doable assembly between U.S. Secretary of Protection Lloyd Austin and his Chinese language counterpart Li Shangfu.

Each are among the many international protection leaders who will collect within the city-state to debate probably the most urgent safety challenges in Asia.

Late Monday, China confirmed the attendance of its protection minister on the discussion board, across the similar time that the Pentagon mentioned China had declined a request from the U.S. for a gathering between the 2 protection chiefs.

Ties between Beijing and Washington hit a brand new low when Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. Home Speaker at the moment, visited Taiwan in August regardless of China’s warnings to the U.S. to honor its dedication to the “one China” precept.

Earlier this 12 months, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed his journey to Beijing after Washington shot down what it described as a doable surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina. China insisted the balloon was not supposed for spying.

“It would not shock me there isn’t any assembly, given the strained relationship now,” mentioned Drew Thompson, a former U.S. protection official who’s now a senior visiting analysis fellow on the Lee Kuan Yew College of Public Coverage in Singapore.

“Any assembly between Austin and Li would reassure different nations within the area, however I do not assume it will change the safety dynamic or the potential for instability.”

Regional considerations have been underscored not too long ago with the Pentagon saying {that a} Chinese language fighter jet made an “unnecessarily aggressive maneuver” towards an American reconnaissance airplane within the South China Sea late final week.

Underneath President Xi Jinping’s management, China has grown extra hawkish on the worldwide stage, notably in its historic claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The latter is a strategic waterway wealthy with sources corresponding to oil and fuel.

It has been a flashpoint in Asia-Pacific for at the least the final decade as China has grown extra assertive with its burgeoning financial clout bolstering its international affect. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam even have competing claims to elements of the waterway, an important commerce route.

“We’re caught within the type of safety dilemma within the area,” mentioned Chin-Hao Huang, creator of “Energy and Restraint in China’s Rise” and affiliate professor of political science at Yale-NUS School in Singapore.    

“Some nations could also be making an attempt to bolster their very own protection capabilities, so as to deter any sort of risk emanating from China, however China will interpret this protection build-up as an affront and so they in flip double down and speed up their navy developments,” he added.

China’s overseas ministry didn’t instantly reply to a CNBC request for remark.

At an everyday press briefing on Might 19, Chinese language overseas ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin mentioned China has no style for “coercion and bullying” when requested about U.S. overseas coverage. “We’ve all the time taken a clear-cut stand towards hegemony, unilateralism and coercive diplomacy.”

Because it stands, China is about to extend protection spending this 12 months by 7.2% to 1.56 trillion Chinese language yuan ($220 billion) — its quickest tempo of annual enhance in 4 years.

“This type of motion response dynamic really causes an excessive amount of concern and really will increase tensions, compounded by a scarcity of belief and dialogue,” Huang added.

The Shangri-La Dialogue, organized by the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research and now in its twentieth iteration, affords nations a chance to have interaction in dialogue. The discussion board is often characterised by a flurry of bilateral and multilateral conferences on the sidelines of the primary program.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will ship this 12 months’s keynote handle on Friday.

“What you’re seeing is the emergence of a regional safety structure,” mentioned Thompson of the LKY College. “The area is actually coming along with a typical curiosity in regional safety and stability.”

That is underscored by the vary of bilateral and multilateral initiatives which have emerged in the previous couple of years, together with the brand new strategic settlement between Vietnam and the Philippines, enhancing relations between Japan and South Korea and the resumption of the Quadrilateral Safety Dialogue between Australia, Japan, India and the U.S.

“China has the choice to be part of this, in the event that they select to,” Thompson added. “However Beijing would wish to successfully change its method and take into account the affect of coercive insurance policies in the direction of its neighbors, whether or not it is navy strain in the direction of Taiwan, financial coercion towards Korea and Japan, or just not recognizing worldwide legislation.”

Upcoming alternatives embody the G20 leaders’ assembly in New Delhi in September and the Asia Pacific Financial Cooperation leaders’ assembly in San Francisco in November.

Till then, the specter of those feuding superpowers will probably solid a pall on all different nations.

“The U.S. will attempt to drum up its function and affect, with growing reliance on its navy benefits and capabilities as a result of it’s involved with dropping its superpower standing,” Huang from Yale-NUS mentioned.

“From Asia, nonetheless, the priorities could also be moderately completely different,” he added. “As an alternative of partaking in an all-out arms race, nations within the area reply to and cope with China pragmatically as a result of they’re in such shut geographical proximity and infrequently can not afford to tackle robust rhetoric or containment-like approaches that emphasize navy capabilities.”

He mentioned crucial factor to regional stability is making certain that there’s continued entry to commerce and financial improvement.

“So, there is a little bit of a disconnect with U.S. overseas coverage approaches that are likely to over-emphasize navy or safety deterrence because the default response to China’s rise,” Huang added.

—CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this text.